Is Everything Explained by Weather?

At the GAMES research group seminar the participants discussed how weather influences electric power consumption. Evgeniya Popova, junior research fellow, told about her study where she was determining the dependence of power consumption on temperature with the help of non-parametric estimation.

In the introduction Evgeniya explained that electric power consumers are usually divided into several groups: population, small business and large enterprises. Citizens and small companies are sensitive to electric power price while large enterprises are not. The author also underlined that aggregated data on power consumption were used in the study. Evgeniya stated the bullet points of the work.

Why is modelling of relationship between electric power consumption and temperature necessary?

First, it is necessary for short-term forecasting of demand for power system dispatchers, that is, for effective solution of everyday tasks. Second, for long-term forecasting of power consumption changes connected with changing of the world climate.

Factors that influence power consumption

Electric power is used for two purposes: for heating and for cooling. Thus, power consumption is connected with the ambient temperature. This is one of the most significant factors that influence power consumption.

Relationship between the temperature and power consumption

Scientists M. Beasec and J. Fouquau determined functional dependence of power consumption on temperature for 15 countries of Europe. The dependence curve differs in cold and hot countries. “At first the consumption falls with the growth of temperature. But there is a corridor when temperature falls but consumption does not grow. This is so-called cooling effect” – explained Evgeniya.

Features of electric power consumption model for Perm region

Evgeniya’s study is based on the data on power consumption in Perm region since 2010 to 2015 (more than 13 thousand observations). The model takes into account such parameters as wind speed, humidity, trend, day of the week, hour of the day etc. Besides in Russia, as distinct from Europe, the central heating system exists. This factor also influences power consumption.

The study results showed that the figure of threshold temperature for Perm region based on the results of calculations turned out to be comparable with other countries of the world, despite the differences in geographical situation and heating systems. “Besides we got an unexpected effect: power consumption continues to grow year after year, rather than to decrease, although we know that energy efficiency program is being introduced for several years” – noted Evgeniya.