What Will 2024 Be Like? The Forecast by iFORA
RBC journalists decided to ask Russian artificial intelligence systems what 2024 will be like. Four leading Russian companies and HSE University took part in the project. The questions were answered by the iFORA big data intelligent analysis system developed by HSE ISSEK.
‘AI, What’s Next?’ was the headline of the final edition published by the RBC newspaper in 2023. ‘Unlike previous years, we decided to devote it not to the results of the past year, but to forecasts for the near future—forecasts generated by Russian artificial intelligence systems at that,’ the periodical noted.
The project participants included five systems from leading Russian organisations in the field of AI development—Sber, Tinkoff, Yandex, MTS, and HSE University—who gave their answers to questions prepared by the editors. The journalists were interested in the widest possible range of topics, from GDP growth and investment to the length of roads, museum visits, and how much a kilogram of buckwheat would cost.
‘The forecasts turned out to be varied... Of course, the editors participated in the processing of information received from AI systems: they did editing, proofreading, and everything required when preparing publications, but no semantic editing,’ explains RBC.
In the battle of AI forecasters, HSE University was represented by iFORA, a system for the intelligent analysis of large text data developed by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at HSE University. The system made predictions for 2024 based on a consensus forecast model—an aggregation of forecast estimates automatically identified from open arrays of text information.
Here are some of the forecasts given by iFORA:
How much will oil cost in 2024?
79.3 USD per barrel—bottom margin
81.3 USD per barrel—mid-range estimate
83.2 USD per barrel—upper margin
How many robots will there be in the world in 2024?
4.7 million units—bottom margin
4.8 million units—mid-range estimate
4.9 million units—upper margin
How many Russians will visit domestic museums in 2024?
64.7 million people—bottom margin
65.8 million people—mid-range estimate
66.8 million people—upper margin
More details about all the estimates and forecasts made by the AI can be found in the RBC article (in Russian).