In this paper, we analyze a new approach for demand prediction in retail. One of the signicant gaps in demand prediction by machine learning methods is the unaccounted sales data censorship. Econometric approaches to modeling censored demand are used to obtain consistent and unbiased estimates of parameters. These approaches can also be transferred to different classes of machine learning models to reduce the prediction error of sales volume. In this study we build two ensemble models to predict demand with and without demand censorship, aggregating predictions for machine learning methods such as Linear regression, Ridge regression, LASSO and Random forest. Having estimated the predictive properties of both models, we test the best predictive power of the models with accounting for the censored nature of demand.
The article analyzes some key moments in the history of temporal logics in late antiquity (conception of integral time, relationship between temporal and eternal, extended and instant in the systems of Iamblichus, Proclus, Damascius and Simplicius), and genesis of Christian forms of temporal logics, which transform the everlasting homogenous time of κόσμος into history of universal salvation, alterate unextended νῦν, moment of psycho-physical time of late Neoplatonists, with καιρός, eschatologically charged instant of decision and act that can interrupt the continuity of time and to achieve instantaneously the end, τέλος of history.
Trial-to-trial variability of the motor evoked potentials (MEP) to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a well-known phenomenon. However, the relationship between the fluctuations of the different types of the motor output and other motor system parameters such as corticospinal excitability, interhemispheric inhibition (IHI) and their interhemispheric asymmetry have not yet been fully investigated. We studied 20 young healthy right-handed volunteers. Four TMS sessions were performed (two single-pulse TMS and two paired-coil TMS with IHI paradigm sessions for each hemisphere), 70 stimuli were delivered during every session. Coefficient of quartile variation (CQV) was used to quantify trail-to-trail variability of MEPs amplitude. Resting motor threshold values were correlated between hemispheres (r = .842, p < .001). IHI phenomenon from the left hemisphere was obtained in 18 out of 20 volunteers, while IHI phenomena from the right hemisphere was shown in 16 out of 20. A strong correlation between the variability of MEP‘s amplitudes during IHI paradigm and the degree of IHI was found for the left hand (r = −.718, p < .001). We also observed a strong correlation between CQV of MEPs from both hands to single-pulse TMS (r = .632, p = .004). A side-specific correlation between the variability of the responses to single-pulse and paired-coil TMS was found for the dominant hemisphere (r = .524, p = .021). Our preliminary results demonstrate the importance of the trial-to-trial variability of the MEPs and its interhemispheric specificity as a defining characteristics of the motor system. This study was partially supported by ofi-m RFBR grant 17-29-02518, by HSE Basic Research Program and Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’.
Russian energy system is one of the largest among centralized ones in the world. For electricity consumption planning it is essential to consider heterogeneity of energy system areas in terms of both consumption structure and climate conditions. In this paper, the relationship of electricity consumption and air temperature is investigated on the data for 64 Russian regions. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to form homogeneous groups of regions: three temperature clusters are retrieved. Bearing in mind different electricity needs in regions, piecewise regression with endogenous reference temperature is estimated for each temperature cluster. In all clusters both cooling and heating effects are clearly observable but reference temperature differs. For the clusters of hot and middle climate regions cooling effect prevails, while heating effect dominates in the cold regions cluster. These effects consideration in energy consumption planning may result in a higher quality of forecasting. This is of a great importance for wholesale electricity market agents and functioning of Russian energy system as a whole.
SummaryMaximus’ idea of appropriation of the divine will by deified humans, in any consistent interpretation, would mean their deprivation of their own freedom – exactly in the same manner as it could be in the case of servitude to sin. Maximus’ own logic, however, was paraconsistent when applied to the case of deification (whereas not to the opposite case of the servitude to sin). A recourse to a paraconsistent deontic logic was not a uniquely Maximian tool even in the Middle Ages and could serve as an inspiring example for logicians today.
In this research we analyze the demand for performing arts. Since the observed demand is limited by the capacity of house, one needs to account for demand censorship. The presence of consumer segments with different purposes of going to the theatre and willingness-to-pay for performance and ticket characteristics compels to account for heterogeneity in theatre demand. In this paper we propose an estimator for prediction of demand that accounts for both demand censorship and preferences heterogeneity. The estimator is based on the idea of classification and regression trees and bagging prediction aggregation. We extend the algorithm for censored data prediction problem. Our algorithm predicts and combines predictions from both discrete and continuous parts of censored data. We show that the estimator is better in prediction accuracy compared with estimators which account for censorship or heterogeneity of preferences only.
People are intent to make similar choices especially in consumer goods markets. To address both explanations of this persistence, i.e. state dependence and heterogeneity in preferences, we use random coefficient logit model based on scanner panel data on juice purchases. The product differentiation of the chosen category allows us to model three dimensions of state dependence on brand, size and flavor characteristics. We provide evidence that the persistence in brand choices is positively correlated with persistence in size and flavor choices, thus the consumer pattern is prone to be inertial or variety seeking in every product characteristics. Simultaneously we show that the more sensitive to price and promotional activities consumers are, the less inertial is their behavior.
Gregory of Nyssa at the outset of his ‘Against Eunomius’ cites Eunomius, where the latter speaks about “greater and lesser” activities. However, discussing this quotation later in the treatise, Gregory misinterprets the words of Eunomius. He reads Eunomius as if he applied the principle of ‘the more and the less’ not to activities but to substances. Such interpretation cannot be proved on the basis of what Eunomius actually wrote. Actually, the two opponents (Gregory of Nyssa and Eunomius) used the same Aristotelian position, which prohibits the application of the principle of ‘the more and the less’ to the category of substance. This position was used by the two polemists in order to argue against each other. At the same time, Gregory developed his own philosophical system founded on the principle of ‘the more and the less’ in the course of this polemics with Eunomius.
With an increased interest in machine processable data and with the progress of semantic technologies, many datasets are now published in the form of RDF triples for constituting the so-called Web of Data. Data can be queried using SPARQL but there are still needs for integrating, classifying and exploring the data for data analysis and knowledge discovery purposes. This research work proposes a new approach based on Formal Concept Analysis and Pattern Structures for building a pattern concept lattice from a set of RDF triples. This lattice can be used for data exploration and in particular visualized thanks to an adapted tool. The specific pattern structure introduced for RDF data allows to make a bridge with other studies on the use of structured attribute sets when building concept lattices. Our approach is experimentally validated on the classification of RDF data showing the efficiency of the underlying algorithms.
Studying the heterogeneity of consumers allows to price the product differently for consumer segments or groups of a product. In this paper we estimate a model of aggregate demand for Perm Opera and Ballet Theatre focusing on the heterogeneity in price effect on demand for tickets on different performances and seats. We estimate parameters of demand function using censored quantile regression that accounts for the limited capacity of the theatre house. We reveal the price effect variation across different types of theatrical productions and seats with lower elastic demand on ballets and for seats of higher quality.
The article gives the analysis of practice of the latest appointments of Duma and Muscovite ranks in Russia in the end XVIIth and early XVIIIth centuries. The author studies the first Peter’s the Great rank system reforms in the context of social and political events. The research reveals biographies those people who had high ranks, it also names the last honorees having moscow ranks and gives details of their ranks granting. The analysis showed the significance of promotion in Muscovite ranks as the way of communication between supreme power and service elite. The attention is drawn to the fact that rank granting was limited to function as honours for service. Finally, it is underlined that duma and Muscovite ranks had been in active use among courtiers and officials inspite of the “Table of ranks”.
I review the central propositions of Neilos Kabasilas's Rule of Theology and analyze the pre-history of a particular theme of vital importance for the treatise's wider theological tradition: the distinction between the warmth and light of fire (the sun) in Palamite theology. This analogy meant to clarify the distinction between the divine essence and energies, as well as between the energies themselves.
The so-called “Museum” Slavonic translation of the Song of Songs contains a specific recension enrooted in Jewish Second Temple traditions. It becomes more plausible that the Slavonic translation has been produced in the earliest period of Slavic writing directly from Syriac rather than from Hebrew, as it was proposed earlier.
The purpose of this article is to trace two lines of interpretation of the philosophical status of Palamism and Barlaamism in the context of the Name-Glorifiers’ dispute in Russian thought of the early 20th century. One line, proposed by Fedor Uspensky, associated Palamism with Aristotelianism and nominalism, and Barlaamism – with Platonism and realism. The other, formulated by Mitrofan Muretov, on the contrary, associated Palamism with Platonism, and Barlaamism – with nominalism. The article explores the development and the transformation of these lines in the course of the Name-Glorifiers dispute. Although Anthony Bulatovich did not speak about the philosophical qualifications of Palamism and Barlaamism, he recaptured Palamism, put forward the doctrine of forms in the context of the doctrine of Onomatodoxy, and polemically attributed Barlaamite position to his opponents. Sergey Troitsky, opponent of the Onomatodoxy, criticized Bulatovich’s doctrine of forms and returned the accusation of Barlaamism to him, linking it to Platonism, partly following Fedor Uspenskiy in this scheme. Vladimir Ern and Pavel Florenskiy, on the basis of their own philosophical attitudes and acting as apologists for Onomatodoxy, developed Muretov’s understanding. The article shows that these opposing interpretations of the philosophical foundations of Palamism and Barlaamism are based on various passages from The Synodikon of the Sunday of Orthodoxy in the edition by Fedor Uspensky.
The work discusses an example of unexpected similarity, in the dissolve of series of logical temporality problems, between some textes of the late Neoplatonists (Iamblichus, Proclus, Damascius) and the last Leo Karsavin's manuscript, "On th Time" (1949).
Following publication is a conceptual article solving the problem of responses to challenges of contemporary education. Contemporary students are often characterized as incapable of holding their attention on the same object for long. Requirements of the labor market are constantly changing, requiring new competencies, skills, work styles from university alumni. Universities have to adopt to these societal changes to remain in demand. The study is aimed at review and analysis of educational approaches created to solve this problem. The approaches reviewed here have a common practice: use of agile methods of project management. Agile is a methodology of flexible project management. Its main specific features are the raise of business’s sensitivity to changes of preferences of consumers and project owners and management of communications with them, ending with perpetual improvement of the end product. Starting in computer software development, agile was quickly adopted by project management and general management on different markets. Yet there has been no such success in transition of agile to education so far. To achieve the stated aim, following methods were used: collection and analysis of scientific publications on agile in education. A part of this analysis was the comparison of conceptually important elements of these approaches to each other and the main ideas expressed in Agile Manifesto. Special attention was given to two of the most discussed approaches: agile teaching-learning methodology (ATLM) and eXtreme Pedagogy (XP). The analysis allowed for characterising the agile approaches as generally uniform and universal, i. e. they can be applied to different disciplines, despite of disciplines being aimed at theoretical or practical preparation of the students. Analysis of the values of different agile educational programs allowed for concluding that methodology can be easily adopted to solving specific educational problems in the universities practically without changing the central ideas expressed in Agile Manifesto. The originality of the data produced in the survey is based on the following characteristics: 1) the comparison of the main agile principles used in the education; 2) conceptual argumentation of possibility of using agile in university environment; 3) preparation of recommendations for the use of the agile at universities. The analysis of educational practices and approaches allowed authors to formulate following practical recommendations for creating new educational programs. First, applied educational practices should correspond to the values of adopted agile methodology. Second, the iterative interaction between the teacher and the student should become a basis of the educational practices. The result of interaction can be in the form of both student knowledge and changes in educational program.
Many of business tasks requires revealing of consumer preferences. There are two main sources of preferences: actual sales data and consumer survey data. Both of these sources have substantial drawbacks. That is the reason why they are often combined into one dataset. In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate heterogeneous preferences on a dataset combined from transactional sales database and result of discrete choice experiment. We show that collection of experimental data allows to increase an efficiency of preferences estimates and improve a model quality in terms of actual choice prediction.
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